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DIA
Assessment of Chinese Nuclear Forces
In April 1984, the
U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) published
a secret Defense Estimative Brief on nuclear
weapons systems in China. The brief was produced
by DIA's China/Far East Division and provided a
general overview of the number of Chinese nuclear
weapons and gave detailed estimates for the
number of Chinese nuclear warheads at the time as
well a projections for 1989 and 1994.
Declassification
of the document was done by DIA in two phases:
the first in a response to a request from the
National Security Archive; the second in response
to a request from Kristensen. In the first release (see right-hand bar), most of the
document was released except DIA's estimate of
China's 1984 nuclear warhead inventory and two
sentences relating to the nuclear capability of
Chinese nuclear bombers. In the second release (see right-hand bar), however, most of
the paragraphs released earlier were
reclassified, while the previously withheld 1984
estimate and bomber information was declassified.
By combining the two releases the original
document could be reconstructed in its entirety (see right-hand
bar).
The
reconstructed document sheds important new light
on the U.S. intelligence community's estimate of
China's nuclear capability in 1984, at a time
when U.S. and Chinese government officials were
attempting to develop a joint stand against the
Soviet Union. China's status was so appreciated
that the U.S. removed China from the SIOP in
1981.
DIA's
estimate sets China's total nuclear stockpile at
360, including 50 non-strategic Atomic Demolition
Munitions (ADMs). The total estimate is
noteworthy because it is some 50 warheads lower
than most non-official estimate for China for
1984. DIA's estimate is also, curiously, 60
warheads lower than the number presented in its
own handbook on Chinese armed forces published in
November 1984.
A
considerable uncertainty, which continues to be
the case, is the status of China's non-strategic
nuclear weapons. As mentioned above, the document
estimates that China had 50 ADMs, and also
concluded that "a small number of China's
nuclear capable aircraft probably have nuclear
bombs." It did so, however, which was
disclosed in the second release of the document,
"even though we are unable to identify
associated airfield storage sites."
DIA's
estimates for the future, however, 592 warheads
in 1989 and 818 warheads in 1994, proved to be
completely off the mark: 50 and 100 percent,
respectively, above the actual force levels for
those years. This inability to predict -- even
approximately -- the future size of the Chinese
nuclear arsenal, is relevant for today's debate
with the U.S. intelligence community
predicting a
"several-fold" increase in the Chinese
stockpile that can hit the United States by 2015.
For an in-depth analysis of China's nuclear
forces, see the report
Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning (FAS/NRDC, November
2006).
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