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Front Page News Items From 2006
USS Randolph visited
Copenhagen with nuclear weapons onboard, despite
Denmark's ban on nuclear weapons. Such nuclear
diplomacy was common during the Cold War
From the Nuclear History
Department
Nuclear Diplomacy During the Cold War
(December 20, 2006)
Caught between the nuclear superpowers in the Cold
War, some non-nuclear countries entered into
top-secret agreements with their nuclear ally that
meant they had to accept nuclear weapons on their
territory. The "good-will" visit of the
nuclear-armed U.S. aircraft carrier USS Randolph to
Denmark in 1966 triggered a diplomatic incident that
set the stage for decades of political trouble.
Newly
declassified documents show that the U.S.
government did not believe nuclear weapons on
visiting warships were affected by the non-nuclear
policies of Denmark and other countries such as
Japan.
New Joint
FAS-NRDC Report on U.S.-Chinese Nuclear Relations Chinese Nuclear Forces
and U.S. Nuclear War Planning
(November 30, 2006) An
incipient nuclear arms race is emerging between
China and the United States, according to a new
report published by the
Federation of American Scientists and the
Natural Resources Defense Council. The 250-page
report,
Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning,
outlines the status and possible future development
of China's nuclear weapons, describes the history of
U.S. nuclear targeting of China, and simulates
nuclear strike scenarios between the two nuclear
powers. The report, which is based on analysis of
declassified and unclassified U.S. government
documents as well as commercial satellite images of
Chinese installations, urges both countries to take
steps to halt and reverse the tension and military
build-up.
New Briefing
Russian Nuclear Forces and Missions
(October 18, 2006) Russia has
major nuclear weapons modernizations underway, yet
its force level will continue to decline
during the next decade even if new land-based ballistic
missiles are equipped with multiple warheads. The United States remains the main focus of
Russian nuclear planning. This and more according to
a briefing presented to the conference
Emerging Nuclear Weapons Policies: An Opportunity to
Increase Dialogue, organized by the
Washington-based
World Security Institute and the Moscow-based
Institute for Strategic Stability.
Long-term projection
for Russian nuclear forces
Another Chinese DF-31
missile has been test launched
Slow Chinese
Missile Modernization Continues
China Test-Launches New Ballistic Missile
(September 6, 2006) China
test-launched a DF-31 long-range ballistic missile
on September 5th, according to a Russian
news media report. The missile was said to have been
launched from the Wuzhai launch site, and impacted
in the Takla
Makan Desert some 2,500 km to the west.
The DF-31 forms the core of China's long-awaited
upgrade of its old liquid-fueled missiles and is a
central theme in the Pentagon's warnings about
Chinese military modernization. Reports from the
media and conservative institutes are full of
exaggerated claims about the capability of the new
missile, as if the reality is not bad enough. Later
this month, FAS and NRDC will publish an report
about China's nuclear forces and U.S. nuclear war
planning against China.
More trouble for controversial
tunnel defeat experiment Divine Strake Test
Explosion Delayed Again May be moved to new
location
(August 2, 2006) The Defense
Threat Reduction Agency has circulated
a statement in Congress saying the Divine Strake
explosion will be delayed "at least several
months into calendar year 2007." The statement comes
after DTRA
told Senator Orrin Hatch (UT) that it will "look
into the possibility of other locations" for
conducting the Divine Strake test. DTRA previously
told FAS that Diving Strake was a nuclear
weapons calibration experiment, but later changed
the story when concerns erupted in Congress and
among local communities. (Divine
Strake background)
Divine Strake hole to
be filled again?
New article in
Défense Nationale
French National Security Magazine
Publishes Article on U.S. Nuclear Policy
US National Security and Preemption
(July 27, 2006) The
French magazine
Défense Nationale asked me to submit an article
about the new U.S. National Military Strategy
published by the Bush administration in March 2006
and how it relates to the so-called preemption
doctrine announced by the administration in 2002.
The article is included in the July 2006 issue which
focuses on the nuclear deterrence
debate following the announcement by French
president
Jacques Chiraq
in January that France
has adjusted its nuclear posture to target regional
adversaries armed with weapons of mass destruction.
The magazine is published by the
Committee for National
Defence Studies, an independent research
institution which includes several retired generals
and admirals from the French military.
House of Common Report Uses
Nuclear Information Project Research
British Parliament Report Criticizes Government
Refusal to Participate in Nuclear Deterrent Inquiry
(June 30, 2006) Although the
UK government has promised a full and open public
debate about the future of Britain's nuclear
deterrent, it has so far failed to
explain what decisions need to be made, failed to
provide a timetable for those decisions, and has
refused to participate in a
House of Commons Defence Committee inquiry on the
future of Britain's nuclear deterrent.
The
Committee report partially relies on research
conducted by the Nuclear Information Project for the
SIPRI Yearbook. For an online overview of British
nuclear forces, see the
Nuclear Notebook.
Britain's nuclear
arsenal
is up for renewal. But is it
still needed?
European politicians
want the Parliament to tell the US to pull nuclear
weapons out of Europe
US Nuclear Weapons in Europe
Continue to Create Political Noise Effort Underway in
European Parliament Against US Nuclear Weapons in
Europe
(June 23, 2006)
A
Written Declaration presented in the European
Parliament calls for the withdrawal of US nuclear
weapons from Europe by the end of 2006. The
Declaration has until December 10 to gather support
from at least half of the Parliament's 732 members
to be adopted and formally submitted to the US
government. The initiative comes as
Russia refused last week to discuss tactical
nuclear weapons with the United States. Most
European want the US to withdraw its
remaining nuclear weapons from Europe.
New Air Force
National Air and Space Intelligence Center Report Ballistic and
Cruise Missile Threat Report Obtained(June 15, 2006) The Nuclear
Information Project has obtained a copy of the Air
Force's latest assessment of the threat from
ballistic and cruise missiles.
The March 2006 report gives new details about
current and emerging weapon systems deployed or
under development by Russia, China, India, Pakistan,
North Korea, Iran, Syria and others. Among the news
is a higher estimate for China's future nuclear
arsenal, that India's Agni I missile is not yet
deployed, that Pakistan's Babur cruise missile has
nuclear capability, and that Israel's Popeye cruise
missile does not have nuclear capability.
New "threats"
from the Air Force
Do
You Want Europe to be Free
of Nuclear Weapons or Not? New Survey Conflicts
With US Defense Secretary Rumsfeld Assessment
Deployment of U.S. Nuclear Weapons
in Turkey Raised in Parliament Debate
Turkish Parliament Debates US Nuclear Bombs(June 7, 2006) The
presence of U.S. nuclear weapons at Incirlik Air
Base in Turkey will be hard to explain to
Muslim and Arab
neighbors, according to Turkey's former Ambassador
to the United States, Sukru Elekdag. The former
diplomat, who represents the Republican People's
Party (CHP), brought
the report U.S. Nuclear Weapons In Europe to the
attention of the Parliament because it states that
the U.S. Air Force stores nuclear bombs at Incirlik.
According to
an article in the Turkish paper
Hürriyet,
Elekdag said that such weapons were removed from
Greece in 2001, and questioned the need to continue
deployment in Turkey.
Turkey's Former US
Ambassador warns of US nukes in Tyrkey
Weapons of Mass Destruction
Commission Publishes Final Report
Nuclear Data Basis For WMD Commission Report
(June 1, 2006)
The
Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission
established by the Swedish Government in 2003 has
presented 60 recommendations for how to move the
disarmament and nonproliferation agenda forward.
Many of the recommendations are strongly at odds
with the policies of several nuclear weapon states
and NATO, and will likely be rejected by the White
House. To show the status of the world's nuclear
arsenals, the report uses the overview co-produced
by undersigned for the
SIPRI Yearbook.
Pentagon
publishes annual report of Military Force of the
People's Republic of China
Chinese Military Power: Can We Avoid Cold War
(May 24, 2006) The
Pentagon latest
report on
Chinese military modernization
should warn us that it
is important that the White House and Congress take
charge of U.S.-Chinese relations so we avoid a new
Cold War in the Pacific, according to a blog I write
on the
Federation of American Scientists' Strategic
Security Project Blog. The Pentagon is reacting
to China’s military modernization in the
old-fashioned way: by building up its own forces.
"Last time we got into this tit-for-tat game with a
large military power it took 50 years, trillions of
dollars, and several nuclear crises to get out."
See also
updated profile of Chinese nuclear forces.
Pentagon warns of
Chinese buildup
Despite rumors, China's
DF-31
is still not
operational and will
not carry multiple warheads
New Nuclear Notebook Published in
the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Chinese Nuclear Forces Profiled
(April 28, 2006)
The Chinese nuclear stockpile appears to be only
half as big as previously thought, according to
a new overview. Up to 130 warheads may be
deployed out of a total stockpile of approximately
200 warheads. Several new weapon systems are under
development which the Pentagon says could increase
the arsenal in the future, but past defense
estimates have proven highly inflated. The new
overview will be followed by a more detailed report
published by
Federation of American Scientists and
Natural Resources Defense Council this spring.
Upcoming non-nuclear explosion
turns out to be nuclear related after all
Global Strike Nuclear Simulation In Nevada
(April 3, 2006) The
Divine Strake explosion scheduled at
the Nevada Test Site in June 2006 will simulate use
of a low-yield nuclear weapon against a tunnel. The
simulation is "an
integral part" of STRATCOM's new
Global Strike mission and follows a
secret directive signed by President
George W. Bush in 2004 that ordered STRATCOM to "extend Global
Strike to counter all [Hard and Deeply Buried Targets] to
include both tactical and strategic adversarial targets."
Go here for background.
High-explosive
experiment
will simulate nuclear
weapons use
New Nuclear Notebook published in
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Nuclear Weapons Reassert Russian Might
(February 24, 2006) A
new review of
Russian nuclear forces
says that the Kremlin appears to be attempting to
reassert its nuclear strength after years of decline
in order to underscore Russia's status as a powerful
nation. Large-scale exercises have been reinstated
and modernizations continue. Yet the reassertion is
done with fewer strategic warheads than at any time
since the mid-1970s and significant cuts in
operational non-strategic nuclear weapons. And
during 2005,
the review discloses, 12 Russian ballistic
missile submarines only conducted three deterrent
patrols.
More submarine patrol data here.
Russian SSBNs only
conducted three deterrent
patrols during 2005
Chinese Nuclear
Submarine Cave at Jianggezhuang
New Article About Chinese Nuclear
Forces Published In Imaging Notes
Elusive Chinese Submarine Cave Spotted
(February 16, 2006) A long-rumored but
never before seen Chinese underground submarine base
is shown for the first time in a new article written
by analysts from the
Federation of American Scientists and
Natural Resources Defense Council. The article,
published in the new issue of
Imaging Notes, shows newly acquired
satellite images of the submarine base, three air
bases, and China's nuclear weapons research,
engineering, and development complex CAEP at
Mianyang. The article is a snapshot of a larger
FAS/NRDC report on US-Chinese nuclear relations
scheduled for publication later this spring.
Click here for background.
US Navy
Updates Nuclear Secrecy
Naval Nuclear Secrecy And Confusion
(February 8, 2006) A new
instruction orders US Navy personnel not to tell
anyone that there are no nuclear weapons onboard US
warships. But the same instruction says it is US
policy not to deploy nuclear weapons on the ships.
Confused?
Read here.
US Navy orders
personnel not to discuss public nuclear policy
The Strategic
Security Program at the
Federation of American Scientists is calling for
a fundamental change of the U.S. nuclear posture to
better reflect the fact that the Cold War has been over
for a decade and a half. The
Pentagon is currently in the final phases of completing a new Nuclear
Posture Review as part of the forthcoming Quadrennial Defense
Review. Past efforts to
reduce the number and role of nuclear weapons have
not gone nearly far enough, FAS says, and the
petition urges that the new Review
unambiguously must demonstrate that Russia is no
longer an enemy, that China is not "the next Soviet
Union," and that nuclear weapons are not merely
another tool in the toolbox for new strike options
against "rogue" states and terrorists. To join the
petition,
go here.
